Potential number of hospitalisations if restrictions lifted when cohorts 1-9 have received 1 dose.
Based on the data we have to date with 90% take-up and 80% effectiveness from one dose against hospital admission (the key metric) this leaves about 30% of groups 1-9 at risk – about 8 million people.
This can be reduced by 20% based on previously having been infected leaving about 6.5 million at risk and their hospitalisation rate is at least 10%. Therefore, if contact levels went back up to pre-with covid levels (about 9 from an average of about 2.5) resulting in up to 80% being infected in a worst case scenario, this could result in about 500,000 admissions.
20 million under 50s will also not have been vaccinated yet. This can be reduced by 25% based on previous infection leaving 15 million at risk and their hospitalisation rate is about 1.5%, Therefore, if contact levels went back up to pre-with covid levels (about 11 from an average of about 3) resulting in up to 80% being infected in a worst case scenario of 80% being infected, this could result in another 200,000 admissions.
i.e. Altogether 700,000 possible admissions (we have had 450,000 over the last year.)
It is of course unlikely that we would reach that level because as COVID increases, behaviour changes – and new restrictions would come in – but this is exactly what we are trying to avoid.
Sources of data: